Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1ba7…0bae crypto 1421 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,919 (-14%) realized −$991 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate67%951W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$27
14 days−$49
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$572
other 22% −$263
sports 17% −$70
politics 9% −$31
weather 5% −$35
tech 4% −$32
world 4% +$1
finance 4% +$7
culture 1% +$1
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.1% -21.4% 70% 15% -21.2%
≤30d 221 -4.1% -13.2% 75% 11% -12.6%
≤90d 1234 -4.1% -13.2% 68% 32% -13.2%
all 1413 -5.3% -14.4% 67% 35% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 35% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 9% -24.0%
15% -30.0% 8% -31.3%
20% -36.9% 6% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$991
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses951 / 462
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1413 / 1421
History coverage100d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Enayat Nazhat advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Cristiano Sicari win the 2026 Chieti mayoral election? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 07 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Sahith Theegala finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial Tou Jun 07 $11 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Chile? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Will J.J. Spaun finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournamen Jun 06 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna Jun 06 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Corey Conners finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourn Jun 06 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 06 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tou Jun 06 $10 −$7 -69%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$2 -23%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Innio's market cap be at least $29B at market close on IPO day? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Bhutan leading at halftime? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Chris Espinosa advance from the CA-26 primary election? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Tuka Gafari advance from the CA-19 primary election? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Parminder "Happy" Singh advance from the CA-09 primary election? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Laura Koscki advance from the CA-03 primary election? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Rebecca Bennett be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Stephanie Vargas advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $71 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 4m
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 4m
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 4m
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 5m
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 96¢ $10 51m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $8 51m
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 86¢ $10 51m
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 91¢ $8 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL No 40¢ $5 1h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 91¢ $3 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election? SELL No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 87¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $10 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL No 97¢ $9 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? SELL No 66¢ $7 3d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? BUY No 77¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 89¢ $10 4d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $10 6d
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? BUY No 90¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? SELL No 87¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.71 · official $71.72 (match) · 3500 history records