Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:51:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1ba7…3d88 weather 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$133 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%87W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$277
14 days+$425
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.3% -7.4% 52% 52% -11.2%
≤30d 172 +2.2% -7.5% 51% 49% -8.2%
≤90d 172 +2.2% -7.5% 51% 49% -8.2%
all 172 +2.2% -7.5% 51% 49% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 49% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 47% -17.0%
15% -24.5% 20% -25.0%
20% -31.9% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$30 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,038
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses87 / 85
Open positions5
Markets (closed)172 / 177
History coverage30d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? No 61¢ 69¢ $573 $643 +$70 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? No 80¢ 81¢ $570 $580 +$10 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? No 67¢ 65¢ $492 $480 −$11 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? No 70¢ 100¢ $235 $334 +$100 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? No 79¢ 0¢ $243 $0 −$242 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $262 −$105 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $574 −$150 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 19 $483 −$195 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $573 +$154 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $489 +$194 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $154 +$57 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $147 +$83 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $157 +$58 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$127 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 16 $111 −$43 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $117 +$31 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $81 +$50 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $8 +$58 +776%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $154 +$47 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $131 +$54 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $153 +$43 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $154 +$42 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $155 +$58 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$24 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$59 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$23 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 11 $45 −$8 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $154 +$47 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $158 +$141 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $139 +$59 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$30 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$31 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $43 +$11 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $96 +$30 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $81 +$38 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $95 +$24 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $96 +$36 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $87 +$22 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? SELL No 38¢ $157 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 67¢ $500 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 60¢ $425 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $296 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $203 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 50¢ $219 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $11 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $17 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $88 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $57 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $168 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $188 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $37 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $584 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,038.08 · official $2,037.91 (match) · 781 history records