Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1ba6…2b22 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,216 (+10%) realized +$1,492 · open −$276
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate100%21W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,146
7 days+$1,146
14 days+$1,147
30 days+$1,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$532
sports 45% +$361
finance 4% +$1
tech 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +47.4% +33.4% 100% 100% +30.2%
≤30d 5 +28.6% +16.3% 100% 60% +18.9%
≤90d 19 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 16% +1.2%
all 21 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 14% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 14% +0.2%
10% -12.4% 14% -9.3%
15% -20.9% 14% -18.1%
20% -28.7% 5% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,378
Realized+$1,492
Unrealized−$276
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses21 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage99d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $1,654 $1,378 −$276 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,212 +$460 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $869 +$345 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $528 +$342 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $523 +$1 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $520 +$3 +0%
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $220 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $300 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $500 +$6 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? May 02 $219 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 02 $300 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 22 $517 +$2 +0%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 13 $516 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $515 +$1 +0%
Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this Apr 08 $514 +$1 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $514 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $513 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $512 +$1 +0%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 28 $512 +$1 +0%
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 25 $511 +$1 +0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $506 +$5 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.50? Mar 14 $506 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,672 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $1,672 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,212 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $869 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $528 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $523 14d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 99¢ $520 29d
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 38d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 38d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 99¢ $500 44d
Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? BUY No 100¢ $219 52d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $300 52d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $517 58d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $516 66d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $515 68d
Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this BUY No 100¢ $514 73d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 100¢ $514 78d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 100¢ $513 80d
Pistons vs. Timberwolves BUY Pistons 100¢ $512 81d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $512 82d
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $511 87d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 99¢ $506 92d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $506 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,377.97 · official $1,377.97 (match) · 44 history records