Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1ba5…e2c8 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1
world 32% $0
crypto 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
finance 5% +$3
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.6% -10.9% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 0% -9.1%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage470d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $39 +$3 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $18 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 12 $17 $0 +3%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $17 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $1 $0 -20%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $17 $0 +2%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say "Rug Pull" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $14 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $23 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $38 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $14 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $39 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $39 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $24 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $12 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $3 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $14 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $20 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $36 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $10 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $26 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.02 · official $35.02 (match) · 101 history records