Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1ba4…6de0 sports 788 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,132 (-29%) realized −$22,121 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%467W / 645L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day86.2pace
Fees−$815est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$165
crypto 5% −$101
other 4% −$2,420
world 1% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 615 -61.0% -64.7% 22% 19% -21.5%
≤30d 826 -45.1% -50.3% 31% 27% -21.2%
≤90d 1112 -33.8% -40.1% 42% 35% -20.7%
all 1112 -33.8% -40.1% 42% 35% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.1% 35% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -45.8% 25% -28.3%
15% -51.1% 18% -35.2%
20% -55.9% 13% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$38 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$22,121
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses467 / 645
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$815
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1112 / 788
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day86.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 42¢ $65 $56 −$9 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Sharks vs. Ducks Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $77 13m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $2 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $99 7h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 72¢ $3 8h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernando Escurra 17¢ $2 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 51¢ $7 9h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernando Escurra 24¢ $6 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 64¢ $3 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $564 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $708 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $235 9h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $118 9h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 19¢ $1 9h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 26¢ $2 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $84 10h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $715 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 84¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $3 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 68¢ $69 11h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 78¢ $6 11h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 91¢ $5 11h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 51¢ $2 11h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 83¢ $2 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $308 12h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 52¢ $6 12h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 45¢ $2 12h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $245 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $62 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $611 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $321 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.90 · official $158.90 (match) · 3500 history records