Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1ba2…d212 sports 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,089 (-4%) realized −$3,897 · open −$1,192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%195W / 266L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day135.2pace
Fees−$1,627est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,278
other 1% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -29.1% -35.8% 34% 33% -29.9%
≤30d 461 -10.1% -18.7% 42% 39% -16.4%
≤90d 461 -10.1% -18.7% 42% 39% -16.4%
all 461 -10.1% -18.7% 42% 39% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 39% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 36% -24.4%
15% -33.6% 31% -31.7%
20% -40.1% 27% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$183 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$6,784
Realized−$3,897
Unrealized−$1,192
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses195 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,627
Open positions35
Markets (closed)461 / 426
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$284
Trades / day135.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 84¢ 98¢ $737 $868 +$131 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 60¢ 66¢ $765 $842 +$77 (+10%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ 37¢ $711 $593 −$118 (-17%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 66¢ 38¢ $1,001 $566 −$435 (-43%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Ugo Humbert 56¢ 86¢ $370 $560 +$190 (+51%)
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Paula Badosa 56¢ 88¢ $349 $540 +$192 (+55%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 81¢ 86¢ $231 $244 +$13 (+6%)
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Martin Krumich 57¢ 100¢ $122 $215 +$94 (+77%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka New Zealand 79¢ 29¢ $552 $202 −$349 (-63%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Laslo Djere 63¢ 100¢ $115 $184 +$68 (+59%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 30¢ 71¢ $76 $178 +$102 (+135%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 50¢ 38¢ $223 $170 −$53 (-24%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $148 $144 −$4 (-3%)
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr Alina Granwehr 66¢ 100¢ $85 $129 +$44 (+52%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Oliver Crawford 70¢ 89¢ $91 $115 +$24 (+26%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Sara Bejlek 50¢ 62¢ $92 $115 +$23 (+24%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Xiyu Wang 81¢ 100¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+23%)
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Thanasi Kokkinakis 69¢ 73¢ $89 $94 +$6 (+6%)
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Gilles Arnaud Bailly 69¢ 94¢ $68 $94 +$25 (+37%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 53¢ 55¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+3%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 60¢ $80 $83 +$2 (+3%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Paulo Dos Santos 45¢ 80¢ $46 $82 +$36 (+78%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $67 $67 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Rinky Hijikata 60¢ 84¢ $43 $60 +$17 (+39%)
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Fiona Ferro 79¢ 72¢ $48 $44 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 205 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $177 −$177 -100%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $242 −$242 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 16 $118 −$118 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $159 −$159 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Jun 16 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 16 $533 −$533 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Moyuka Uchijima Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 16 $241 −$241 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul Jun 16 $225 −$225 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Geneva Open: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Jaume Munar Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $322 −$322 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Jessica Bouzas Man Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 89¢ $20 0m
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 68¢ $3 1m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 47¢ $14 1m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 47¢ $14 1m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 29¢ $4 3m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 29¢ $4 3m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Julia Riera 65¢ $3 4m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 61¢ $18 4m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 56¢ $17 5m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 63¢ $7 6m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $68 7m
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 65¢ $30 8m
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 73¢ $4 9m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 86¢ $26 10m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 21¢ $11 11m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 87¢ $9 11m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 74¢ $10 11m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 33¢ $37 14m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 60¢ $15 14m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 60¢ $29 14m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 87¢ $9 15m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 41¢ $28 15m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 41¢ $28 15m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 40¢ $21 15m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 87¢ $10 15m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 88¢ $65 15m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 9¢ $7 15m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 45¢ $2 15m
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 95¢ $10 16m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 42¢ $29 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,784.04 · official $6,784.04 (match) · 3500 history records