Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b9f…3088 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 23% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 6% -9.6%
all 35 -1.0% -10.5% 37% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage460d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $21 +$1 +6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $58 −$4 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -29%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $89 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 +$8 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $18 $0 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 26 $1 $0 +4%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $22 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $21 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $43 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $43 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $0 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $47 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $46 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $6 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $31 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $48 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records