Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b9c…8620 sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$630 (+1%) realized −$750 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate50%63W / 64L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day155.5pace
Fees−$1,434est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$564
7 days−$1,086
14 days−$960
30 days−$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,003
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +9.8% -0.6% 49% 21% -12.4%
≤30d 127 +17.5% +6.4% 50% 22% -10.5%
≤90d 127 +17.5% +6.4% 50% 22% -10.5%
all 127 +17.5% +6.4% 50% 22% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 22% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 13% -19.0%
15% -13.1% 8% -26.8%
20% -21.6% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$76 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$750
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses63 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,434
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 106
History coverage22d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day155.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $88 $1 −$87 (-99%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $185 $0 −$185 (-100%)
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 Under 15¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 3.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 4.5 Under 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 15¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 5.5 Over 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5 Under 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $162 $0 −$162 (-100%)
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 0.5 Under 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 5.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $122 −$94 -76%
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $69 −$72 -103%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $162 −$104 -64%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 −$32 -208%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $3 −$8 -271%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $546 −$473 -86%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $86 −$236 -273%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $46 +$129 +279%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $152 −$145 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,148 +$341 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,549 −$63 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $432 +$36 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,163 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,134 +$43 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $212 +$75 +35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $587 +$81 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $115 +$257 +225%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $231 −$175 -76%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,173 −$18 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $672 +$11 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,311 +$29 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $172 +$1 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,358 +$28 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $275 +$5 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $300 +$43 +14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $300 +$15 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $137 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,234 +$291 +9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $222 −$2 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $976 −$1 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,613 −$17 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $456 +$40 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $400 +$94 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $100 +$18 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $510 +$15 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $373 −$10 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,353 +$91 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $33 56m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $68 56m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $17 58m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 58m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $91 58m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $2 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $0 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $10 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $1 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $5 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $18 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $60 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $10 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $2 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $3 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $0 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $14 59m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $18 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $65 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $7 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $21 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $32 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $27 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.03 (match) · 3500 history records