Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b9c…68d3 crypto 1241 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,264 (-8%) realized −$2,264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate88%1136W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$83
14 days−$83
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -30.0% -36.6% 64% 11% -12.4%
≤30d 525 -13.2% -21.4% 80% 10% -11.9%
≤90d 1298 -4.9% -13.9% 88% 16% -11.0%
all 1298 -4.9% -13.9% 88% 16% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 16% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 4% -19.5%
15% -29.7% 2% -27.3%
20% -36.6% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1136 / 162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1298 / 1241
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1298 Trades
no open positions (130 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records