Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b9a…a06b sports 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10,602 (+13%) realized +$10,619 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate75%133W / 45L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$447per market
Trades / day100.7pace
Fees−$2,862est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3,411
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +11.0% +0.4% 70% 33% -12.4%
≤30d 156 +20.0% +8.5% 76% 42% -5.7%
≤90d 178 +17.6% +6.4% 75% 40% -5.6%
all 178 +17.6% +6.4% 75% 40% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 40% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 31% -14.7%
15% -13.1% 25% -22.9%
20% -21.6% 17% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$542) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$46 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10,619
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses133 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$2,862
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$447
Trades / day100.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 1¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 20 $670 +$38 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $26 +$8 +31%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $27 +$28 +104%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 20 $20 −$5 -28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $32 −$17 -55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,244 −$97 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $60 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $484 +$67 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,934 +$133 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,170 +$77 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,527 +$68 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $234 −$25 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $93 +$17 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $400 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $2,535 −$785 -31%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $1,683 −$417 -25%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$9 +33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $69 +$5 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $98 −$27 -28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,382 −$12 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $593 +$40 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $69 +$55 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$41 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,369 +$19 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $0 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,379 +$121 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $405 +$12 +3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $68 +$28 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $322 +$11 +3%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $204 −$8 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$15 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $594 +$407 +68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $767 +$43 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,995 +$104 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,869 +$55 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,485 −$193 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4,029 +$212 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $60 +$9 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $240 +$29 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $420 +$20 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $550 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $240 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $46 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $261 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 3¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 3¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 3¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $645 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 3¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 3¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 3¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 1¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $225 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $36 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $88 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $157 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 3500 history records