Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b99…8f62 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$400 (-4%) realized −$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%56W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$1,869
14 days−$969
30 days−$553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$487
other 19% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -42.2% -47.7% 32% 32% -34.0%
≤30d 123 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 46% -13.9%
≤90d 123 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 46% -13.9%
all 123 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 46% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 46% -13.9%
10% -32.9% 44% -22.1%
15% -39.4% 37% -29.6%
20% -45.4% 31% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$70 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses56 / 67
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage23d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $133 −$130 -98%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $90 +$48 +54%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $153 +$74 +48%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 27 $52 +$117 +228%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $44 −$43 -98%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $131 +$39 +30%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $142 +$89 +63%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $151 +$48 +32%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $574 +$321 +56%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $71 −$2 -2%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $84 −$83 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $99 +$57 +58%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $169 −$169 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $123 +$78 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $252 +$199 +79%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $153 +$48 +31%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $156 +$64 +41%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $56 +$58 +103%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $76 +$34 +44%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $76 +$71 +94%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $21 +$26 +126%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $26 +$24 +95%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $21 +$35 +170%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $75 +$49 +66%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $67 +$27 +41%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $46 +$93 +200%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $49 +$46 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $133 49m
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $138 54m
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $227 58m
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $169 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $153 1h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $44 1h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $52 2h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $52 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $90 3h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 81¢ $170 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $131 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $231 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $99 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $199 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $151 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $43 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $894 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $95 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $409 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $70 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 69¢ $70 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $84 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $71 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $99 46h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $52 46h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $52 46h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $201 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records