Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b93…0ffd politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$197
other 40% −$10
sports 4% −$11
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 126 -5.9% -14.8% 3% 2% -10.5%
all 139 -6.4% -15.4% 6% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 4% -10.4%
10% -23.5% 3% -18.9%
15% -30.9% 1% -26.8%
20% -37.6% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 131
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage116d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $156 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $141 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $315 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $280 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $127 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $452 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $293 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $144 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $308 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $175 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $188 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $135 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 4h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 8h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 21h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 21h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 33h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 7d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records