Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b92…dc31 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$196 (+5%) realized +$197 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$71
14 days+$105
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$23
crypto 33% +$220
politics 5% +$6
sports 3% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 33% -24.6%
≤30d 21 +17.0% +5.8% 71% 67% -1.7%
≤90d 21 +17.0% +5.8% 71% 67% -1.7%
all 21 +17.0% +5.8% 71% 67% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 67% -1.7%
10% -4.3% 62% -11.1%
15% -13.5% 38% -19.7%
20% -22.0% 19% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$33 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,305
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage17d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2,000 $1,997 −$3 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $306 $308 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $202 +$6 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $66 +$27 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $102 −$9 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $102 +$32 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $391 −$51 -13%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$11 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $201 +$63 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $101 +$28 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $199 +$65 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 +$12 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $42 +$16 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $41 +$17 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $39 +$10 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $308 58m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $107 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 79¢ $101 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,210 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 7d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? SELL No 19¢ $6 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 32¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 10d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? SELL No 73¢ $93 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 77¢ $102 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 92¢ $101 11d
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY GAM Esports 65¢ $20 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $101 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 55¢ $232 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 67¢ $100 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $101 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 66¢ $87 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 62¢ $103 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 75¢ $102 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 86¢ $101 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,305.09 · official $2,305.09 (match) · 55 history records