Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1B 0x1b8e…51c2 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$270 (-15%) realized −$285 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day58.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-10.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-0.7%	-10.1%	60%	45%	-28.1%
≤30d	20	-0.7%	-10.1%	60%	45%	-28.1%
≤90d	20	-0.7%	-10.1%	60%	45%	-28.1%
all	20	-0.7%	-10.1%	60%	45%	-28.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover58.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.1%	45%	-28.1%
10% ← realistic here	-18.7%	40%	-35.0%
15%	-26.6%	40%	-41.2%
20%	-33.8%	30%	-47.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late +15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$99 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized−$285

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day58.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	20¢	50¢	$10	$25	+$15 (+148%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 22	$52	+$62	+120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$13	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 22	$102	+$39	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 22	$52	+$46	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 22	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 22	$103	−$79	-77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 22	$101	+$8	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 22	$103	+$80	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$11	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 22	$15	+$3	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 22	$31	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 22	$307	−$261	-85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 22	$50	−$18	-36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 22	$104	−$90	-86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 22	$103	−$63	-61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 22	$103	+$87	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 22	$104	−$76	-73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 22	$104	+$74	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Jun 22	$100	+$2	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Up	85¢	$115	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$26	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$63	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Down	87¢	$39	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$26	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$103	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$141	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$98	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	SELL Down	15¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$109	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$183	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$37	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$18	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.81 · official $24.81 (match) · 62 history records