Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b8b…7293 crypto 393 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,435 (+58%) realized +$21,435 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%189W / 202L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$309
sports 1% −$42
other 0% +$1
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -10.2% -18.7% 45% 45% -21.5%
≤30d 136 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 46% -24.8%
≤90d 391 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 47% -8.9%
all 391 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 47% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 46% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 43% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 38% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$85 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21,435
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses189 / 202
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)391 / 393
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$94
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 391 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$58 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$35 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$26 -83%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$68 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$70 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$110 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$34 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$146 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$145 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL 15¢ $15 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY 30¢ $31 7h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $20 13h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 29h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 13¢ $10 29h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $50 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records