Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b8a…74b1 weather 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-12%) realized −$11 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% +$5
crypto 30% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)3 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+344%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 37¢ 60¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 81¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 66¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 16? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 44¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 79¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 65¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.09 · official $35.91 (match) · 21 history records