Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b8a…9c2f sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$209 (-12%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$24
14 days+$21
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$49
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -28.5% -35.3% 26% 26% -6.2%
≤30d 69 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 42% -6.3%
≤90d 73 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 41% -8.0%
all 73 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 41% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 41% -8.0%
10% -22.6% 41% -16.8%
15% -30.1% 41% -24.8%
20% -36.9% 38% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 43
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage36d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 174.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $54 +$303 +562%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +69%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $41 +$39 +96%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $30 +$32 +107%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $21 −$1 -4%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $20 +$26 +128%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +94%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $20 +$16 +78%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $55 −$55 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $8 +$9 +113%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $8 +$9 +104%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 Jun 13 $8 +$8 +92%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $6 +$9 +144%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $6 +$6 +104%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $6 +$8 +133%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $126 −$7 -6%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $6 +$6 +92%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $6 +$6 +96%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 10 $6 +$7 +108%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $6 +$8 +122%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 −$5 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 43¢ $57 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 12¢ $54 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 174.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 3h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 12h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 12h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $41 24h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 45¢ $20 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 85¢ $61 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 40¢ $30 27h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 49¢ $61 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 1¢ $0 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 47¢ $19 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 27¢ $21 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 49¢ $18 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 3d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 23¢ $16 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 0¢ $0 6d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 30¢ $55 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 21¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records