Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b89…1c69 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 23% −$1
sports 21% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.0% -9.6% 28% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage180d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $221 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $213 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $224 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $224 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 11 $224 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $224 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japan Feb 25 $223 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $223 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $223 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $219 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $111 47h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $110 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $110 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $36 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $6 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $50 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $6 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $6 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $6 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $111 24d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 25d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 38d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $111 38d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $111 43d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 43d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 52d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 52d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 52d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 53d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $112 69d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $112 69d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 72d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 72d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $213 87d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 88d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 88d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $224 97d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $224 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records