Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b86…ff5b sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$269 (+12%) realized +$91 · open +$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$410
14 days+$449
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$479
other 22% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +21.8% +10.2% 59% 59% +12.9%
≤30d 37 +18.0% +6.8% 59% 59% +9.5%
≤90d 37 +18.0% +6.8% 59% 59% +9.5%
all 37 +18.0% +6.8% 59% 59% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 59% +9.5%
10% -3.4% 59% -1.0%
15% -12.7% 59% -10.6%
20% -21.3% 57% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$52 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 100¢ $100 $278 +$178 (+178%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$40 +79%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 +$40 +79%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$80 +79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$33 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$127 +208%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$44 +43%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$35 -70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$56 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 +$33 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$55 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$63 +123%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $61 +$115 +189%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$55 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$37 -73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$63 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $17 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 86¢ $145 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $67 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $30 5d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.64 · official $277.64 (match) · 66 history records