Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

1B 0x1b85…2e56 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$421 (-24%) realized +$207 · open −$628

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$346per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$825now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+62.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	+79.2%	+62.1%	100%	100%	+57.2%
≤90d	3	+79.2%	+62.1%	100%	100%	+57.2%
all	3	+79.2%	+62.1%	100%	100%	+57.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+62.1%	100%	+57.2%
10%	+46.6%	100%	+42.2%
15%	+32.5%	100%	+28.4%
20%	+19.5%	100%	+15.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +79% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage

Net worth$825

Realized+$207

Unrealized−$628

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage24d

Avg bet$346

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$1,250	$825	−$425 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	83¢	0¢	$203	$0	−$202 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Jun 08	$132	+$71	+54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Jun 01	$72	+$79	+108%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	May 27	$75	+$57	+75%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$1,099	2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	83¢	$203	9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	89¢	$151	16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY No	65¢	$132	21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	48¢	$72	24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY No	57¢	$74	24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY No	57¢	$1	24d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.87 · official $824.87 (match) · 10 history records