Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b7e…79e5 crypto 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,694 (+1%) realized +$1,694 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%137W / 70L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$68
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$2,071
politics 27% +$3,676
other 15% −$774
crypto 4% −$35
sports 3% −$704
weather 1% −$1,031
tech 0% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +14.9% +4.0% 100% 38% +4.4%
≤30d 74 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 38% -8.3%
≤90d 101 -4.7% -13.8% 83% 41% -11.8%
all 207 -5.8% -14.8% 66% 40% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 40% -6.9%
10% -23.0% 23% -15.8%
15% -30.4% 17% -23.9%
20% -37.2% 14% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$290 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,694
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses137 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage558d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 24 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 24 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 611 history records