Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b7c…20a6 world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$291 (+8%) realized +$271 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%48W / 40L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$39
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$170
other 11% −$9
politics 5% +$5
sports 2% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -19.3%
≤30d 5 +18.0% +6.8% 60% 60% -1.2%
≤90d 14 +12.9% +2.2% 50% 50% +2.9%
all 88 +11.4% +0.8% 55% 51% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 51% -1.9%
10% -8.9% 44% -11.3%
15% -17.7% 31% -19.8%
20% -25.8% 25% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized+$271
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses48 / 40
Open positions10
Markets (closed)88 / 98
History coverage572d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 59¢ 81¢ $70 $96 +$26 (+37%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 59¢ 84¢ $60 $86 +$26 (+44%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 41¢ 44¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 63¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 41¢ 44¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 48¢ 42¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 23¢ 10¢ $80 $32 −$48 (-60%)
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 17 $52 +$17 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $87 +$26 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $175 −$55 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 −$27 -54%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $70 +$79 +113%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 17 $50 −$6 -12%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 07 $51 +$78 +152%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 05 $40 +$41 +103%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $55 +$33 +60%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Apr 25 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 20 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $56 −$33 -59%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by November 30? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Mar 18 $93 −$60 -64%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 14 $28 −$7 -25%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Mar 11 $40 −$1 -2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $39 −$11 -29%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $93 −$59 -63%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Feb 28 $83 −$16 -19%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Feb 28 $47 +$16 +35%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $80 +$12 +15%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $35 +$25 +72%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 13 $118 −$71 -60%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Jan 21 $40 +$9 +22%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 12 $40 −$11 -28%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jan 09 $35 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Dec 15 $50 −$17 -34%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 14 $45 −$31 -69%
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025? Dec 05 $25 +$12 +50%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Nov 25 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? Nov 25 $40 −$14 -34%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Nov 25 $38 −$19 -50%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31? Nov 24 $14 −$14 -97%
More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31? Nov 21 $100 −$56 -56%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Nov 19 $20 $0 -0%
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Nov 19 $39 +$20 +51%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Nov 17 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Nov 06 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Nov 05 $40 +$12 +29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 05 $65 +$33 +50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 +$4 +41%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Nov 02 $18 −$12 -64%
Will Russia capture Shakhove by October 31? Oct 31 $20 +$3 +15%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Oct 31 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Oct 26 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Oct 26 $45 −$6 -14%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30? Oct 24 $15 −$5 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 17¢ $10 30m
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $69 31m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $60 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $10 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $91 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $20 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $50 6d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $10 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $20 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $10 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $60 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $149 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $35 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 22¢ $10 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 51¢ $10 24d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 32¢ $10 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 39¢ $20 29d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 36¢ $10 30d
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? SELL No 50¢ $44 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $50 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 30¢ $10 37d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $73 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 38¢ $60 40d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $56 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.07 · official $571.09 (match) · 557 history records