Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b7b…3bb0 crypto 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$374 (-6%) realized −$374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%86W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$92
14 days−$831
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.7% -19.2% 69% 50% -18.7%
≤30d 121 -5.0% -14.0% 71% 64% -15.7%
≤90d 121 -5.0% -14.0% 71% 64% -15.7%
all 121 -5.0% -14.0% 71% 64% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 64% -15.7%
10% -22.3% 49% -23.8%
15% -29.8% 21% -31.1%
20% -36.7% 8% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$55 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses86 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage22d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$28 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$33 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$36 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $56 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $58 +$54 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$20 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$26 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$21 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$24 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$36 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $57 +$25 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $57 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $57 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $57 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $56 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $56 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $57 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $56 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $57 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $57 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $57 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $57 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $57 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $57 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $58 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $57 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $57 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records