Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b7a…e2ee other 47 markets active 7h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73 (-41%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$47
other 28% −$13
crypto 28% −$14
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 41% -37.8%
≤30d 34 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 41% -37.8%
≤90d 47 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -48.5%
all 47 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 38% -48.5%
10% -28.1% 36% -53.4%
15% -35.0% 32% -57.9%
20% -41.4% 30% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage75d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +106%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +174%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $21 −$18 -88%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $3 +$1 +31%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 -22%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $2 +$2 +76%
Jazz vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 7h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $3 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 20¢ $1 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $1 9h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $1 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 67¢ $2 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 44h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records