Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1B 0x1b7a…7721 other 56 markets active 10h ago coverage 499d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$224 (-24%) realized −$219 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$116
world 28% −$91
sports 19% +$55
politics 8% −$32
crypto 3% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +38.0% +24.8% 44% 44% +24.6%
≤30d 18 +38.0% +24.8% 44% 44% +24.6%
≤90d 18 +38.0% +24.8% 44% 44% +24.6%
all 39 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 28% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 28% -33.2%
10% -19.5% 26% -39.6%
15% -27.3% 26% -45.4%
20% -34.4% 26% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

499d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)39 / 56
History coverage499d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 33¢ 36¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$16 +303%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$14 +277%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $5 +$20 +398%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 +$11 +206%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$19 +194%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$19 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $139 −$119 -86%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $38 +$45 +117%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $20 −$4 -21%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$48 +96%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Green Day" or "Bad Bunny" this week? (February 8) Feb 09 $28 −$28 -100%
2025 February hottest on record? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Feb 12 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 02 $6 −$1 -22%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Feb 02 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 02 $7 $0 -3%
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 02 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 02 $5 $0 -8%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $4 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $21 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 91¢ $19 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 14h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 32h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $24 32h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 32h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 33h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $19 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 35h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 36h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 40h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $10 40h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $5 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 38¢ $5 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 13¢ $5 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 20¢ $5 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 50¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.76 · official $119.77 (match) · 125 history records