Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b78…0c1a crypto 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-6%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%116W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 47% -20.6%
≤30d 85 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 47% -20.6%
≤90d 206 -9.3% -17.9% 56% 45% -16.5%
all 206 -9.3% -17.9% 56% 45% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 45% -16.5%
10% -25.8% 35% -24.5%
15% -33.0% 28% -31.8%
20% -39.5% 17% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses116 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)206 / 206
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 206 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +266%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +296%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 398 history records