Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

1B 0x1b76…0c37 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 593d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$27,684 (+41%) realized +$28,211 · open −$527

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$4,504per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$40,837now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$36,088

7 days+$23,064

14 days+$23,064

30 days+$23,064

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+60.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+173.4%	+147.3%	33%	33%	+106.2%
≤30d	3	+173.4%	+147.3%	33%	33%	+106.2%
≤90d	3	+173.4%	+147.3%	33%	33%	+106.2%
all	9	+77.4%	+60.5%	67%	67%	+91.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+60.5%	67%	+91.6%
10% ← realistic here	+45.1%	56%	+73.3%
15%	+31.1%	56%	+56.5%
20%	+18.2%	44%	+41.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 87% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +128% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

44.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$6,877 vs −$4,374 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage

Net worth$40,837

Realized+$28,211

Unrealized−$527

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Open positions6

Markets (closed)9 / 15

History coverage593d

Avg bet$4,504

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	No	30¢	30¢	$13,782	$14,012	+$230 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	No	20¢	20¢	$8,906	$9,129	+$223 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	No	19¢	20¢	$5,849	$6,003	+$154 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	No	13¢	12¢	$5,339	$4,723	−$616 (-12%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	No	11¢	10¢	$4,415	$3,813	−$602 (-14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	No	18¢	18¢	$3,072	$3,157	+$85 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$5,011	+$36,087	+720%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$5,142	−$5,010	-97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$8,196	−$8,014	-98%
Pacers vs. Raptors	Feb 22	$100	−$100	-100%
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?	Feb 22	$4,246	+$4,012	+94%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics	Nov 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?	Nov 17	$843	+$115	+14%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Nov 17	$1,500	+$846	+56%
Magic vs. Pacers	Nov 07	$435	+$195	+45%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$1	0m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$0	0m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$2	2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$0	3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$56	3m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$0	4m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$2	5m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$0	5m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$25	8m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$5	9m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$1	9m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$0	11m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$0	12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$2	14m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$2	15m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$2	15m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$3	15m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$1	15m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$1	15m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$2	15m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$1	16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$1	17m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$0	20m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$1	21m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$0	21m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$2	22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$2	22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$2	22m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$1	28m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	20¢	$8	29m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,836.97 · official $40,836.97 (match) · 669 history records