Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b70…d94c crypto 303 markets active 6d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-5%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%180W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$44
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$44
other 9% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -20.4% -28.0% 58% 58% -13.6%
≤30d 303 -9.0% -17.6% 59% 38% -15.1%
≤90d 303 -9.0% -17.6% 59% 38% -15.1%
all 303 -9.0% -17.6% 59% 38% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 38% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 26% -23.2%
15% -32.7% 15% -30.7%
20% -39.3% 10% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses180 / 123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)303 / 303
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 303 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$52 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$4 +21%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$11 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$4 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$8 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$4 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
HYPE Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +71%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 932 history records