Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b6e…764d other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$9 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$29
sports 37% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 67% -14.8%
≤30d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 67% -14.8%
≤90d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 67% -14.8%
all 15 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 67% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 67% -14.8%
10% -0.1% 53% -22.9%
15% -9.7% 40% -30.4%
20% -18.6% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)15 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +152%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $39 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $12 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 64¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $21 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.20 · official $45.20 (match) · 34 history records