Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b6e…3644 crypto 330 markets active 5d ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%143W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 38% -24.9%
≤30d 322 -5.3% -14.4% 43% 43% -12.3%
≤90d 330 -4.9% -14.0% 43% 43% -12.2%
all 330 -4.9% -14.0% 43% 43% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 43% -12.2%
10% -22.2% 42% -20.6%
15% -29.7% 41% -28.3%
20% -36.6% 37% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses143 / 187
Open positions0
Markets (closed)330 / 330
History coverage194d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 330 Trades
no open positions (177 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 484 history records