Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b6c…596b other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 713d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,552 (-20%) realized −$2,054 · open −$498
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$3,881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days+$313
14 days+$347
30 days+$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$924
politics 13% −$239
world 11% −$1,384
sports 5% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.0% +12.2% 69% 54% -2.3%
≤30d 14 +23.3% +11.6% 71% 57% -1.9%
≤90d 15 +15.1% +4.1% 67% 53% -23.8%
all 24 +0.3% -9.3% 54% 46% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 46% -33.8%
10% -18.0% 42% -40.1%
15% -25.9% 33% -45.9%
20% -33.2% 33% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$363 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

713d coverage
Net worth$3,881
Realized−$2,054
Unrealized−$498
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)24 / 37
History coverage713d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $390 $588 +$198 (+51%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $520 $575 +$55 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $568 $441 −$127 (-22%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $414 $415 +$2 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $390 $386 −$4 (-1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $371 $380 +$9 (+2%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $257 $265 +$8 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $235 $232 −$2 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $460 $225 −$235 (-51%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $134 $133 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $445 $119 −$326 (-73%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $88 −$38 (-30%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $71 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $410 +$590 +144%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $98 +$9 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $817 −$811 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$21 -16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $367 +$216 +59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$98 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $371 +$122 +33%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $353 −$83 -24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $411 −$406 -99%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $247 +$141 +57%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $251 +$156 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $262 +$298 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $229 +$33 +14%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 10 $582 −$582 -100%
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024? Nov 05 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 16 $334 −$334 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $705 −$54 -8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $557 +$149 +27%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? Aug 16 $10 +$19 +194%
Netherlands vs. England - Who will advance? Jul 14 $11 +$8 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 88¢ $163 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 87¢ $228 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $239 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $152 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $138 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 19h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY Yes 92¢ $28 21h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $39 22h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 22h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $138 22h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY Yes 92¢ $18 22h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 91¢ $98 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $410 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $775 44h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $111 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $21 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $132 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $64 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $64 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 59¢ $583 3d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 3d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $367 3d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,880.65 · official $3,880.65 (match) · 125 history records