Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1B 0x1b6b…420f crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+5%) realized +$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%97W / 44L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$151
14 days+$151
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$170
sports 13% +$58
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 71% +4.4%
≤30d 7 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 71% +4.4%
≤90d 9 -8.6% -17.3% 78% 56% -1.1%
all 141 -1.8% -11.2% 69% 60% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 60% -4.3%
10% -19.7% 37% -13.5%
15% -27.4% 20% -21.8%
20% -34.6% 13% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses97 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage101d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $250 +$35 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Apr 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Mar 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $70 +$59 +84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Mar 28 $30 +$29 +98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 23 $35 +$15 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 23 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 23 $15 −$13 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$20 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 22 $70 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$34 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 22 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 22 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 22 $40 +$23 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 22 $45 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 22 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$14 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 22 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $111 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $120 70d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 61¢ $122 70d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 74¢ $60 70d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 67¢ $20 70d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 55¢ $50 70d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 6¢ $5 92d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $20 92d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $30 92d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $129 92d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $40 92d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $40 92d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $59 92d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $30 93d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $30 93d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $29 98d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $50 98d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $20 98d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $5 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records