Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b6a…6bbf crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$72 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%50W / 4L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,287per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$71
other 4% +$3
tech 4% +$3
politics 4% −$3
sports 2% −$1
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.2% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,366) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×14.18 per $1 lost it wins $14.18
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$4,564
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses50 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage244d
Avg bet$1,287
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $4,557 $4,559 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $4,557 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $4,496 +$13 +0%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4,492 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $1,124 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $1,114 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $1,113 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.30 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $1,381 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 4? Jan 05 $1,380 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,379 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in December? Jan 01 $1,376 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,375 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,373 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 28? Dec 29 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on December 28? Dec 29 $1,069 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 22 above $270? Dec 27 $1,370 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.40 on December 25? Dec 26 $641 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on December 25? Dec 26 $728 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,368 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 22? Dec 23 $371 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 22? Dec 23 $995 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 15-21? Dec 22 $277 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,087 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 20? Dec 21 $442 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on December 20? Dec 21 $922 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$300 on the final day of trading of the we Dec 20 $1,362 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 1 Dec 19 $1,361 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 17? Dec 18 $1,359 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $1,358 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on December 15? Dec 16 $1,357 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 13? Dec 14 $1,355 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 12? Dec 13 $1,354 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.40 and $2.50 on December 11? Dec 12 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on December 11? Dec 12 $1,136 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 10? Dec 11 $1,351 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? Dec 10 $1,348 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 8? Dec 09 $1,347 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 1-7? Dec 08 $1,344 +$3 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 October 27-November 2? Dec 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,500 on November 1? Nov 02 $1,367 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.80 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,366 +$1 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 31 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 30 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on October 28? Oct 29 $1,367 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 27? Oct 28 $453 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 27? Oct 28 $913 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26? Oct 27 $1,364 +$1 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $1,363 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,557 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,485 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 21h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $4,496 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,492 5d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 66d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 100¢ $1,124 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,114 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,113 76d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 168d
Will XRP reach $2.30 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,381 169d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,380 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,379 172d
Will Solana reach $150 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1,376 174d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,375 175d
Will Solana dip to $110 December 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $1,373 176d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $303 178d
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,069 178d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 22 above $270? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,370 179d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on December 25? BUY No 100¢ $728 181d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.40 on December 25? BUY No 100¢ $641 181d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,368 181d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 22? BUY No 100¢ $995 182d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 22? BUY No 100¢ $371 182d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $277 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,564.34 · official $4,564.34 (match) · 134 history records