Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b64…f8b5 crypto 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%343W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$19
14 days−$4
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$75
other 8% −$66
finance 7% +$5
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 175 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 349 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 349 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses343 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)349 / 349
History coverage69d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 349 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 12h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 1853 history records