Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b62…b6a4 weather 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized +$293 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%18W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$41
other 32% −$321
world 5% $0
sports 5% −$111
politics 3% −$2
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-80.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -78.3% -80.4% 16% 5% -48.4%
≤30d 111 -78.3% -80.4% 16% 5% -48.4%
≤90d 111 -78.3% -80.4% 16% 5% -48.4%
all 111 -78.3% -80.4% 16% 5% -48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.4% 5% -48.4%
10% -82.3% 2% -53.4%
15% -84.0% 1% -57.9%
20% -85.6% 1% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$293
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses18 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions168
Markets (closed)111 / 164
History coverage16d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 168 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 58¢ $7 $45 +$38 (+543%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 57¢ $7 $43 +$36 (+532%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $4 $41 +$37 (+999%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 64¢ $5 $37 +$32 (+609%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+323%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+191%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 23¢ $7 $18 +$11 (+153%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 44¢ $2 $18 +$15 (+657%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $7 $11 +$5 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 48¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+422%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $2 $7 +$4 (+180%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+146%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+180%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Yes 9¢ 99¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+992%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-66%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-57%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 2¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+3684%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+999%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $15 3m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $20 32m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $20 32m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $19 32m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 84¢ $17 32m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 94¢ $19 32m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $20 32m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $20 32m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 97¢ $20 32m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 86¢ $17 32m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $19 32m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $20 32m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 56¢ $11 34m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 97¢ $20 59m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $19 59m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 56¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 85¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 84¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.66 · official $337.88 (match) · 375 history records