Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b62…7b52
politics · 9 markets active 349d ago
3.0score
+$115,908 +521%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$115,908 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$115,908
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
Avg bet$2,470
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? No 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 28 $3,407 +$1,552 +46%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Jun 23 $137 −$137 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 23 $248 +$2 +1%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 28 $1,210 −$298 -25%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $430 −$100 -23%
Will Donald J. Trump win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $940 +$10 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,627 +$6 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 11 $943 +$18 +2%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 27 $13,286 +$114,854 +864%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% +$114,854
politics 23% −$364
world 16% +$1,555
economics 1% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 15¢ $14 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $60 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $5 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $88 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $12 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $20 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $5 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $100 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $1 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $33 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $25 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $30 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $1 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $170 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $17 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $10 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $0 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $7 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 17¢ $163 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $5 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $2 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $2 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $18 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $9 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $140 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $0 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $1 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $3 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $102 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 18¢ $168 349d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+264.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 9 +302.3% +264.0% 67% 22% +540.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +264.0% 22% +540.4%
10% ← realistic here +229.2% 22% +479.1%
15% +197.4% 22% +423.2%
20% +168.2% 22% +371.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records