Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b61…27c5 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$4
weather 5% −$4
other 4% +$2
politics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.5% -10.8% 36% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 0% -10.4%
all 25 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -10.6%
10% -18.5% 4% -19.1%
15% -26.4% 4% -27.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage459d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $1 $0 -14%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18? Mar 18 $12 −$4 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 38m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $26 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $14 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records