Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b60…a55b world 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$62,100 (+28%) realized +$61,438 · open +$662
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%38W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,103per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$65,602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$7,576
14 days+$7,267
30 days+$7,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$15,492
politics 43% +$47,405
tech 3% −$124
other 2% −$411
sports 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -22.2% -29.6% 59% 41% +14.7%
≤30d 23 -23.7% -30.9% 61% 30% +10.9%
≤90d 51 -16.7% -24.6% 63% 24% +0.3%
all 57 -9.6% -18.3% 67% 26% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 26% +27.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 14% +15.0%
15% -33.2% 9% +3.9%
20% -39.8% 5% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,698 vs −$148 · ×11.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.9 per $1 lost it wins $22.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$65,602
Realized+$61,438
Unrealized+$662
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses38 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions49
Markets (closed)57 / 106
History coverage185d
Avg bet$2,103
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10,000 $10,021 +$21 (+0%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $6,586 $6,654 +$68 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $6,190 $6,246 +$56 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 76¢ 93¢ $3,645 $4,460 +$815 (+22%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $3,119 $3,020 −$99 (-3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,970 $3,014 +$44 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,450 $2,543 +$93 (+4%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,400 $2,443 +$43 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 84¢ 87¢ $2,086 $2,148 +$62 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $2,000 $2,064 +$64 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,980 $1,979 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,676 $1,697 +$21 (+1%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,444 $1,455 +$12 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $1,291 $1,248 −$44 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? No 92¢ 93¢ $1,108 $1,116 +$8 (+1%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,014 +$14 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,003 +$3 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $1,143 $993 −$151 (-13%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $968 $967 −$1 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $933 $913 −$20 (-2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $900 $860 −$40 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $800 $843 +$43 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $800 $835 +$35 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 76¢ $700 $824 +$124 (+18%)
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? No 91¢ 87¢ $756 $725 −$30 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? Jun 27 $159 +$26 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $207 +$15 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $942 +$58 +6%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $2,487 +$105 +4%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $206 −$23 -11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $3,032 +$797 +26%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $7,973 +$1,314 +16%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $2,975 +$1,194 +40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $6,598 +$3,873 +59%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $1,600 +$744 +46%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,400 +$154 +11%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $583 +$43 +7%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $500 +$48 +10%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1,000 +$48 +5%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 07 $2,000 +$207 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $1,000 +$15 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? May 25 $900 +$48 +5%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 23 $201 +$8 +4%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? May 23 $282 +$13 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $7,400 +$1,000 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $8,520 +$2,690 +32%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 19 $503 +$76 +15%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $232 −$224 -96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $221 −$176 -80%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $1,800 +$3,665 +204%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $172 +$16 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 08 $50,000 +$428 +1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $1,000 +$21 +2%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 01 $393 −$126 -32%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $1,990 +$9 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Apr 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $1,165 −$71 -6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 21 $932 +$74 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $461 −$20 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 20 $1,971 +$71 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,900 +$90 +5%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $15,000 +$98 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $563 −$20 -4%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 11 $1,633 −$277 -17%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 97¢ $968 3m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $11 6m
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $160 7m
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $160 7m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $141 29m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $13 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $41 38m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $0 39m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $0 39m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $0 39m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $0 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $0 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $24 48m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $297 58m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $34 59m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $630 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $352 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $221 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $14 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $264 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,601.95 · official $65,601.96 (match) · 1155 history records