Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b5f…2c0a crypto 437 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,884 (+11%) realized +$2,884 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%253W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day150.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$259
sports 0% −$12
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +0.8% -8.8% 58% 30% -12.8%
≤30d 437 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 31% -10.5%
≤90d 437 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 31% -10.5%
all 437 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 31% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 31% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 24% -19.1%
15% -27.7% 17% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,884
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses253 / 184
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day150.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$33 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$21 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$12 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$22 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $90 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$13 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$28 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records