Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b5e…9f21 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$171
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.9% +0.3% 60% 50% -21.4%
≤30d 62 +18.3% +7.1% 45% 44% -18.7%
≤90d 65 +14.7% +3.7% 45% 43% -18.9%
all 65 +14.7% +3.7% 45% 43% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 43% -18.9%
10% -6.2% 42% -26.6%
15% -15.3% 40% -33.7%
20% -23.6% 40% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage35d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$83 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $181 +$57 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $176 +$170 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$130 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$10 +1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $143 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records