Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b5c…b380 crypto 527 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$704 (-2%) realized −$704 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%221W / 306L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$76
14 days+$731
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$33
sports 12% −$861
other 6% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -9.2% -17.8% 48% 46% -7.7%
≤30d 162 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 44% -9.7%
≤90d 527 -6.7% -15.6% 42% 32% -11.2%
all 527 -6.7% -15.6% 42% 32% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 32% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -19.7%
15% -31.1% 30% -27.5%
20% -37.8% 30% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$33 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$704
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses221 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)527 / 527
History coverage59d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 527 Trades
no open positions (242 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $161 +$109 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$46 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$9 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$42 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$22 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$22 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$22 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $174 +$136 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$22 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $132 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$44 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $132 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$17 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2167 history records