Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b58…1e09 crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$234 (-43%) realized −$235 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$225
14 days−$225
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 51% −$221
other 23% −$13
crypto 15% −$9
sports 11% −$26
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 40% -68.5%
≤30d 5 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 40% -68.5%
≤90d 21 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 33% -66.1%
all 35 -12.3% -20.6% 51% 46% -59.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 46% -59.1%
10% -28.2% 34% -63.0%
15% -35.2% 26% -66.6%
20% -41.5% 17% -69.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage97d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$17 +114%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 17 $266 −$211 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Kings vs. Flames Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Aether vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - ESL Challe Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Mar 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Cha Mar 24 $6 +$2 +37%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$1 +34%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 23 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 18 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 17 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 17 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 19h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL Yes 17¢ $55 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 79¢ $89 3d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 77¢ $178 3d
Kings vs. Flames BUY Kings 83¢ $15 87d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 87d
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane SELL Tulsa Golden Hurricane 100¢ $16 87d
Counter-Strike: Team Aether vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - ESL Challe BUY Team Aether 70¢ $8 88d
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Cha BUY Bounty Hunters Esports 73¢ $6 88d
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers BUY Dayton Flyers 74¢ $10 89d
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane BUY Tulsa Golden Hurricane 64¢ $10 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 89d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Connecticut Huskies 62¢ $0 89d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Connecticut Huskies 63¢ $9 89d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 65¢ $10 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $13 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.65 · official $47.65 (match) · 80 history records