Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b57…57d6 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$4 (-18%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$9
world 14% +$1
finance 5% $0
other 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 18 -21.1% -28.6% 39% 39% -28.6%
all 18 -21.1% -28.6% 39% 39% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 39% -28.6%
10% -35.4% 33% -35.4%
15% -41.7% 22% -41.7%
20% -47.4% 17% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28.98178453734009% → late -13.16781971039179% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $1 $0 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 19 $1 $0 -22%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $1 +$3 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 56d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 83¢ $1 59d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.83 (match) · 39 history records