Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b55…761d other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%27W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$11
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$12
crypto 17% +$10
sports 15% −$1
world 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -10.7% -19.2% 27% 26% -11.7%
≤30d 99 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 26% -11.5%
≤90d 99 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 26% -11.5%
all 99 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 26% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 26% -11.5%
10% -26.7% 23% -19.9%
15% -33.8% 20% -27.7%
20% -40.3% 16% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses27 / 72
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 $0 -0%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 27 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $44 +$15 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$13 +262%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 +$3 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -56%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 +$11 +549%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 +$6 +277%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 +$14 +276%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 $0 -8%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 $0 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 United States? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -97%
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $40 1h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $44 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 31h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 31h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 171 history records