Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b50…3ecf
crypto · 1947 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$169 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$783 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$783
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1067 / 771
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1838 / 1947
History coverage24d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day91.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 1838 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days−$151
14 days+$493
30 days+$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 50¢ 66¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 2? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on June 2? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$916
other 0% −$12
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1082 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 51% -11.7%
≤30d 1838 +2.1% -7.6% 58% 57% -1.9%
≤90d 1838 +2.1% -7.6% 58% 57% -1.9%
all 1838 +2.1% -7.6% 58% 57% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover91.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 57% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 51% -11.3%
15% -24.6% 38% -19.9%
20% -31.9% 33% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.63 · official $15.07 (match) · 3500 history records