Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b50…87fb sports 717 markets active 1h ago coverage 701d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$290 (-1%) realized −$387 · open +$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%257W / 455L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,250
7 days+$3,423
14 days+$3,549
30 days+$1,471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$3,906
other 35% −$4,073
crypto 9% +$336
finance 2% −$249
politics 2% −$138
weather 2% +$82
world 1% −$27
economics 1% −$323
tech 1% +$94
culture 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +12.8% +2.1% 49% 49% +38.5%
≤30d 63 +14.9% +4.0% 46% 46% +3.9%
≤90d 93 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 39% -4.9%
all 712 -7.0% -15.9% 36% 35% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 35% -10.9%
10% -23.9% 35% -19.4%
15% -31.3% 33% -27.2%
20% -38.0% 30% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$37 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

701d coverage
Net worth$5,209
Realized−$387
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses257 / 455
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions5
Markets (closed)712 / 717
History coverage701d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $1,412 $1,339 −$73 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 56¢ 70¢ $1,000 $1,259 +$259 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $900 $1,131 +$231 (+26%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $1,000 $754 −$246 (-25%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $799 $725 −$74 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$37 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$36 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,188 +$3,265 +149%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$76 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$110 +179%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$46 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$35 +116%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $51 +$65 +129%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 13 $41 −$2 -6%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$166 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 12 $835 −$496 -60%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $50 +$66 +132%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $61 −$27 -44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 +$8 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $507 +$419 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $53 −$52 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $699 +$306 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$58 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $52 +$114 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $52 +$55 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 05 $53 −$8 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 05 $5 +$10 +193%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $43 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $297 8h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 10h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $177 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $360 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $300 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 21h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $105 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $420 23h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $667 23h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $526 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,208.70 · official $5,209.03 (match) · 1631 history records