Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b4c…d6a2 world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$295 (+7%) realized +$431 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%45W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$81
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$87
politics 15% +$33
other 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 44% -6.3%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 39% -6.4%
≤90d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 39% -6.4%
all 67 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 39% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 39% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 24% -15.4%
15% -26.2% 13% -23.5%
20% -33.5% 9% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized+$431
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses45 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)67 / 83
History coverage14d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 15¢ 18¢ $69 $82 +$13 (+19%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 64¢ 68¢ $68 $73 +$5 (+7%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? No 86¢ 88¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 87¢ 82¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $71 $66 −$5 (-7%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $55 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 30¢ 40¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 75¢ 24¢ $71 $23 −$48 (-67%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 78¢ 23¢ $71 $21 −$50 (-70%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $71 $19 −$52 (-73%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? No 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 17 $53 +$34 +63%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $71 +$4 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $128 +$23 +18%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 17 $153 +$27 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $8 −$3 -36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 17 $14 −$6 -44%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 17 $64 +$5 +8%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $72 +$15 +21%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -42%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $65 +$7 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $25 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$63 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $68 +$42 +61%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $49 +$3 +6%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $89 +$7 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $72 +$21 +29%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 15 $57 +$10 +17%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 15 $47 +$5 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $137 −$25 -18%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $75 +$31 +42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $73 +$12 +16%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $57 +$24 +42%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 14 $48 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $192 −$65 -34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $53 +$43 +82%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $142 +$17 +12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +76%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +64%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $57 +$14 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 −$3 -25%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $51 +$5 +9%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 31m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 87¢ $70 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $26 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $18 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 86¢ $70 2h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 41¢ $51 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 41¢ $25 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 39¢ $71 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $81 4h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $71 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 15¢ $69 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $13 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $71 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $97 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $71 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 61¢ $3 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $8 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $71 6h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 18¢ $6 7h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 64¢ $68 7h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $124 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $68 7h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 90¢ $24 8h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $68 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $70 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.24 · official $572.64 (match) · 388 history records