Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b4c…4040 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-61%) realized −$72 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$29
sports 50% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% -84.3%
≤30d 10 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% -84.3%
≤90d 10 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% -84.3%
all 10 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% -84.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.2% 20% -84.3%
10% -64.9% 20% -85.8%
15% -68.3% 20% -87.2%
20% -71.4% 20% -88.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $33 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 51¢ $6 3h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 33¢ $6 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $20 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $20 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.01 · official $30.01 (match) · 16 history records