Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1B 0x1b4b…915d other 22 markets active 4h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$37 (-11%) realized +$0 · open −$37

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip

Net edge+52%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+58.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+75.0%	+58.3%	29%	29%	-8.8%
≤30d	14	+75.0%	+58.3%	29%	29%	-8.8%
≤90d	14	+75.0%	+58.3%	29%	29%	-8.8%
all	14	+75.0%	+58.3%	29%	29%	-8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+58.3%	29%	-8.8%
10%	+43.1%	29%	-17.5%
15%	+29.3%	29%	-25.5%
20%	+16.6%	21%	-32.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +75% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late +250% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$178

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$37

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)14 / 22

History coverage7d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$114	$86	−$29 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$35	$32	−$3 (-9%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$19	$18	−$2 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	62¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$8	$5	−$3 (-40%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$30	+1469%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$28	−$28	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$15	+97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$11	−$11	-97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	+$23	+442%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$2	+42%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?	Jun 10	$2	−$2	-96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 10	$3	−$3	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 10	$5	−$2	-32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$2	4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$28	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$30	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$15	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$6	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	6¢	$8	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$36	3d
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$7	6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$19	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$5	6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	6d
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	BUY Canada	12¢	$5	6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$5	6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	38¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$118	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.47 · official $178.47 (match) · 35 history records