Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b4a…dc9e world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1
other 31% +$2
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.8% -22.9% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 16 -6.1% -15.1% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -6.1% -15.1% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage462d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 58¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $14 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $11 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $12 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $13 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $21 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $1.00 (match) · 102 history records